Published by the Times-Standard, June 22, 2003
We’ve all heard about the rise of globalization; how nations, economies and, communities are increasingly connected and how forces outside a particular place have an increasing influence on what happens inside its borders. At the same time, we in Humboldt County recognize the power of the “Redwood Curtain,” that oft-mentioned dividing line between us and the outside the world that is both protective and restrictive at the same time.
This community has a love-hate relationship with the curtain, loving it for isolating us from the troubles and turmoil of our neighbors to the south, hating it for keeping out some of the innovations and opportunities enjoyed by those same communities.
Increasingly, however, the curtain is becoming more porous. The North Coast is being “rediscovered” as a good place to live and work. This is not surprising, given the economic and community changes taking place in the rest of our state.
In April I had the opportunity to listen to a presentation
by Joel Kotkin, a researcher with the Milken Institute. Kotkin is a well-known expert on global and regional economic,
political and social trends and a frequent contributor to the Wall Street
Journal, New York Times, Washington Post, and Los Angeles Times.
In his talk, Kotkin
outlined the economic challenges faced by California’s regions and discussed
what will make communities competitive economically. First, he predicts that the communities that thrive in the future
are those that provide a high quality of life.
The communities that lose in the economy of the 2000’s, not
surprisingly, are those with a high cost structure, high housing prices, are
physically unattractive, and are over-concentrated in one or two business
sectors.
For Kotkin, San Jose
is a prime example of a city that will struggle in this new reality. Still overpriced, crowded, and with a low
quality of life, that city will struggle to find the “next big thing” to
attract and retain younger workers and entrepreneurs. No longer will people endure living in these areas with the
notion of getting rich quick.
The winners are
communities that can attract and maintain younger workers, have diversified
economies, are perceived as safe, that provide opportunity for upward mobility,
and where housing is affordable. Why is
this? According to demographer William
Frey, people are increasingly looking for communities to “age in place.” In this “post-nomadic” economy, individuals
place a greater emphasis on family, faith, and community than the quick
score.
So, what does this
mean for the North Coast? Doesn’t the
“Redwood Curtain” and our lack of connectivity insulate us from the effects of
these trends? Perhaps to a certain
degree, but we are already witnessing the signs of a new migration of people
into our region. Possibly the best way
to see this effect is to study the growth of the price of homes here. As reported by HSU Professor Steve Hackett,
the median price for a single-family home has increased by 49 percent after
inflation since 2000. During the same
period, personal per-capita income growth decreased by .2%. As a result, our housing affordability index
(the percentage of Humboldt County households that could afford to purchase a
median priced home) has declined from 50% in 1999 to 33% in March 2003.
Nevertheless, with a
median home price of $190,000, we are still far below the California median
price of $337,780. Couple this fact
with our unparalleled natural beauty, high quality of diverse cultural
opportunities, and our two institutions of higher learning and you have a
pretty attractive community.
Some might argue,
therefore, that we should be doing all we can to discourage an influx of people
by restricting growth and discouraging business investment. I disagree with this for three reasons.
The first is that
it’s impossible to “close the drawbridge.”
People, primarily those with the means will always migrate to
high-quality communities. The second
reason, related to the first, is that the imposition of absolute and simplistic
limits to growth only hurts those in the middle class and below as housing
prices rise. The third is that our
community can only benefit from an influx of people with new ideas, talent,
experience, and capital.
The trick is, of course, to embrace and encourage this change without allowing it to destroy the communities we all love. We do this by not reacting with fear of change, but being proactive in how we plan for it. This does not mean “throwing open the floodgates” but by being smart in how we accommodate the demand for housing.
We should continue to support the work of revitalizing our downtowns. Business services from technical assistance and training to creative financing vehicles that encourage business growth and investment should continue to improve. Government policies should encourage investment in our communities. A coordinated, regional response system for business inquiries should be developed. We should reach out to the alumni of Humboldt State and College of the Redwoods to encourage them to stay or return.
The bottom line is that for the North Coast to thrive, we need to preserve the quality of life that we have all come to value in our communities. At the same time, we must create communities that are attractive to families, encourage business growth and development, and takes advantage of the broader economic forces shaping our country.
Finally, congratulations to all of those who worked so hard to bring an end to the impasse over the deployment of the fiber optic project. While we will all celebrate the project’s completion, we must remind ourselves that this project is not an end in itself, but rather a means to enhance our community’s educational and business climate. I look forward to working with the Redwood Technology Consortium and others in exploring ways to take advantage of our new connectivity.